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Everything Is Predictable

Novinka
Ilustrační obrázek
Popis
Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem - independently discovered a few years later by Pierre-Simon Laplace, the great French ...
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Značka:
Orion Publishing Group
Výrobní číslo:
139960404X
EAN:
9781399604048
Náš kód:
2146482
Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem - independently discovered a few years later by Pierre-Simon Laplace, the great French mathematician - was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear, affecting fields as diverse as medicine, law and artificial intelligence. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court it has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
Autor Tom Chivers
Jazyk Anglicky
Počet stran 320
Pořadí vydání 1
Vazba brožovaná bez přebalu
Druh Kniha